Monday, November 16, 2009
Belichick Was Correct
Feeling a touch under the weather I didn't see the end of the fantastic Colts vs. Patriots. Of course it was hard it ignore the media outlash against Belichick this morning. After hearing the description of said 4-2 call my first though was, "Wow, seems like an EV calculation." And my second thought was, "There's no way your typical ex-football player / writer understands that concept." And sure enough, ESPN and the general media are filled with this incorrect nonsense that Belichick made a horrible call. The simplicity of their analysis distilled down to "You have to trust you defense, man."
It's freaking Moneyball all over again, except we don't have Joe Morgan around to sound like a fool.
How about a little math? Any good poker player shoving ATC from the cutoff understands they have both fold equity and some chance of winning if they do get looked up. So if they make the first down they win 100% of the time (i.e. everyone folds to your shove). And if they fail to get the first down they still have a chance of their defense stopping Manning and company, however small that chance is (much like your rags beating QQ). So add those two together and compare against the result of a typical punt with 2 minutes left.
Well, Advanced NFL Stats did the math. Guess what? Belichick was right.
New England coach Bill Belichick is taking a lot of heat for his decision to attempt a 4th down conversion late in the game against the Colts. Indianapolis came back to win in dramatic fashion. Was the decision a good one?
With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:
(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP
A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.
Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.
Sunday, November 08, 2009
And then there were two...
So the final two at the 2009 World Series of Poker are Darvin Moon and Joe Cada. Based on the online coverage I saw this should make for an entertaining TV final table. The unfortunate part is the final two completely luck-sacked their way here. And that's not to take away from the solid play that both Moon and Cada exhibited before the final table. It's just too bad that poor play and suck-outs reign victorious on this stage. Hey, that's poker...a skill game.
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
Merge Poker in Trouble - Not Paying Bills
It shouldn't be much of a surprise that Merge Poker is dying. Poor management decisions, promotion debacles and shitty support have long been the trademark of Merge (Carbon Poker, PDKpoker, etc.) Gambling911.com is reporting that now Merge is stiffing vendors. Another solid decision Merge, fuck up your money flow, good one...
The struggling Merge Poker Network reportedly owes $160,000 to a poker payment platform, PIC Club, Gambling911.com can reveal today. PIC Club has been trying to get its money since July and finally issued a deadline of this past Friday to be paid in full. PIC Club offered to take off $64,000 from that amount.
"Merge had a contract with us and we were giving them plenty of time to pay what was owed," said Chuck Kidd, head of PIC Club.
Merge is now claiming they terminated the contract to which Kidd responds:
Chuck Kidd, CEO of PIC Club, responded: "The contract was ceased by Merge only after we set a deadline and threatened to cut them off if they didn't pay."
My recommendation: Use those tournament tickets and get all your cash off Merge now before it goes all tits up.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Full Tilt Rakeback
A few weeks ago I sent a message to Full Tilt support asking about the status of their rakeback program. Although they do not officially offer rakeback through the site there are plenty of affiliates that do so. Of course if you originally signed up without rakeback it can be a complete bitch to get it later. Close your account, wait several months and setup a new account. Yuck...
Anyway, I was expecting the typical "not gonna happen" response, but instead they said they would forward my information on to one of their partners. Sure enough, a week later I was in business. No new account and very little wait.
Now this certainly might not work for you, but if you haven't checked it can't hurt to ask. 27% rake back is pretty significant and depending on your volume could be extra hundreds or thousands in your pocket.
Thanks Full Tilt!
Friday, October 09, 2009
FML
Wednesday, October 07, 2009
Tigers = Epic Fail
3 game lead with 4 to go...
However, Miguel Cabrera is my new hero. When your Blood Alcohol Level exceeds the batting average of half your team you are officially a stud!
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Cards Lock in NL Central
It was simply a matter of time, but the Cardinals have now officially clinched the NL Central Title. Can the Tigers hold of the Twins and keep the hopes of a 2006 World Series rematch alive?
Friday, September 25, 2009
MLB Playoffs Almost Set
The only race left is in the AL Central. Can the Tigers hold on or will the Twins chase them down?
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Terrelle Pryor to Tackle Vince Young Wonderlic Record
I think people would be more upset with these comments if they weren't so incoherent and stupid. Here is Terrelle Pryor "trying" to explain how people, including Michael Vick, deserve a second chance.
"Not everybody's the perfect person in the world. I mean everyone kills people, murders people, steals from you, steals from me, whatever. I think that people need a second chance, and I've always looked up to Mike Vick, and I always will."
Good luck with your NFL success Mr. Pryor...
Sunday, September 06, 2009
Party Like it was 2006?
Could 2009 be another central party at the World Series?
The Tiger's pitchers should start practicing their throw to 3rd base now...
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